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CDMA iPhone may finally ship on Verizon in summer 2010

It's the rumor that won't die. After sitting on the sidelines while the iPhone drove up subscriber count and average revenue per user for AT&T over the past three years, Verizon may be getting a CDMA version of Apple's successful smartphone this summer. That is, as long as Apple and Verizon can agree on pricing.

Apple has launched the iPhone on multiple carriers in many parts of the world, and has noted success in countries where it is available from more than one carrier. However, when the iPhone first launched, Apple had to make a long-term exclusivity deal with AT&T to get the phone to market. The original deal was for five years, though it is believed that that deal was renegotiated when the iPhone transitioned to a subsidized model for the iPhone 3G. That exclusivity is widely believed to expire this year.

That hasn't stopped rumors of a Verizon-capable iPhone from cropping up every now and again. Those started as early as 2008, and predicted a CDMA iPhone model launching as early as 2009. Later rumors moved the date to 2010, and Verizon has continued to express an interest in carrying the iPhone. The latest intel from UBS Investment Research analyst Maynard J. Um suggests that Apple and Verizon are still in negotiations. "We believe a CDMA-iPhone is also in the works," Um wrote in a note to investors, "though we believe Verizon Wireless and Apple may currently be apart on pricing." (It's also worth noting that Verizon was the first carrier Apple approached before settling on Cingular, now AT&T.)

Other sticking points may extend beyond pricing. Verizon has been hammering iPhone carrier AT&T for what is seen as less than stellar coverage of its 3G network in its "Map for That" series of ads. It has also directly attacked the iPhone in ads for the Android-based Motorola Droid. Verizon will also soon be getting Palm's webOS-based phones and the just-announced Google Nexus One, so it may not be as interested as it once was for iPhone customers.

Users, however are a different matter. Frustration with AT&T's service has prompted some iPhone users to drop their phone to move to another carrier. Many potential US iPhone users are also waiting for the phone to be available on another carrier before taking the plunge. This gives Apple an important incentive to reach out to additional carriers in the US, but don't count on the company capitulating to any demands from Verizon or anyone else to do so.